The concept of 'vote headroom' is a key one in assessing which party might be best placed to beat an incumbent. 'Vote headroom' is just another way of saying the potential to get more votes than current polling suggests.
There are two ways of looking at 'vote headroom'. The first is to look back over previous election results. In Central Devon both the Liberal Democrats and Labour have come second to the Conservatives. But in the 2010 the Liberal Democrats gained a higher percentage of the vote than Labour have gained, even in Labour's best election in 2017.
That data can be verified in Wikipedia here.
In 2010 ...
and the result in 2017 ...
So the 'vote headroom' based on General Election results would seem to favour the Liberal Democrats.
It is also possible to look at 'vote headroom' from a polling intentions perspective. The key question being ...
"If you were not to vote for the political party you usually favour for which party would you vote?"
* A voter intention poll conducted in June 2023 by Omnisis showed that in the South West most voters would switch their vote to the Liberal Democrats if they did not vote for their 1st choice party. 33% of voters said they would switch to the Liberal Democrats compared with just 22% for the Labour Party.
* The Omnisis Voter Intention Poll - VI-038 : 9th June 2023
This is of particular importance in Central Devon as for either the Liberal Democrats, or Labour, to beat the incumbent Conservative MP, they will need votes to 'switch' from Conservative voters.
So looking to both the past General Election performance and to voter intentions makes a strong case for the Liberal Democrats to be the party with the greatest 'vote headroom' and so the greatest potential to beat the Conservatives in Central Devon.
Combining both these bits of data together with recent actual voting performance, where in 2024 the Liberal Democrats have 20 District Councillors to the Conservatives' 15 and Labour's 0, and where in 2023 the Liberal Democrats gained 36% of the vote to the Conservatives' 38% and Labour's 7% there is a compelling case for believing Liberal Democrats can win in Central Devon in the 2024 General Election.
Central Devon Liberal Democrats urge voters to be cautious about accepting tactical voting sites at face value, as Election Calculus admits they may be wrong on 50 constituencies and take no account of local factors.
Liberal Democrat, Alex White has won the by-election caused by the resignation of former Conservative Councillor Stuart Penny for a Mid Devon District Councillor to represent the ward of Upper Yeo & Taw.
A recent poll by Omnisis shows that most voters in the South West would switch their vote to the Liberal Democrats
Buoyed by national polls Labour peddle the myth they can win in Central Devon. All the evidence suggests only the Liberal Democrats can win here.
